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Democrat says he is providing FBI with evidence, including whodunit:
> http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm
More:
> http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=04/11/03/1520249 > http://globalresearch.ca/articles/KEE411A.html
A source that provides pretty detailed raw information as it breaks:
> http://www.legitgov.org/index.html#breaking_news
Very odd data from Florida (these charts don't lay out properly in FireFox):
> http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm
Screenshots of modified exit polls:
> http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=1290765&mesg_id=1325948&page=
Two additional articles:
> http://www.spectrumz.com/z/fair_use/2004/11_04.html > http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2004/11/05/loc_warrenvote05.html
(Text for articles above follows. -- Seth)
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> http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm
Evidence Mounts That The Vote Was Hacked
by Thom Hartmann Published on Saturday, November 6, 2004 by CommonDreams.org
When I spoke with Jeff Fisher this morning (Saturday, November 06, 2004), the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives from Florida's 16th District said he was waiting for the FBI to show up. Fisher has evidence, he says, not only that the Florida election was hacked, but of who hacked it and how. And not just this year, he said, but that these same people had previously hacked the Democratic primary race in 2002 so that Jeb Bush would not have to run against Janet Reno, who presented a real threat to Jeb, but instead against Bill McBride, who Jeb beat.
"It was practice for a national effort," Fisher told me.
And some believe evidence is accumulating that the national effort happened on November 2, 2004.
The State of Florida, for example, publishes a county-by-county record of votes cast and people registered to vote by party affiliation. Net denizen Kathy Dopp compiled the official state information into a table, available at http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm, and noticed something startling.
While the heavily scrutinized touch-screen voting machines seemed to produce results in which the registered Democrat/Republican ratios largely matched the Kerry/Bush vote, in Florida's counties using results from optically scanned paper ballots - fed into a central tabulator PC and thus vulnerable to hacking – the results seem to contain substantial anomalies.
In Baker County, for example, with 12,887 registered voters, 69.3% of them Democrats and 24.3% of them Republicans, the vote was only 2,180 for Kerry and 7,738 for Bush, the opposite of what is seen everywhere else in the country where registered Democrats largely voted for Kerry.
In Dixie County, with 4,988 registered voters, 77.5% of them Democrats and a mere 15% registered as Republicans, only 1,959 people voted for Kerry, but 4,433 voted for Bush.
The pattern repeats over and over again - but only in the counties where optical scanners were used. Franklin County, 77.3% registered Democrats, went 58.5% for Bush. Holmes County, 72.7% registered Democrats, went 77.25% for Bush.
Yet in the touch-screen counties, where investigators may have been more vigorously looking for such anomalies, high percentages of registered Democrats generally equaled high percentages of votes for Kerry. (I had earlier reported that county size was a variable – this turns out not to be the case. Just the use of touch-screens versus optical scanners.)
More visual analysis of the results can be seen at http://us together.org/election04/FloridaDataStats.htm, and www.rubberbug.com/temp/Florida2004chart.htm. Note the trend line – the only variable that determines a swing toward Bush was the use of optical scan machines.
One possible explanation for this is the "Dixiecrat" theory, that in Florida white voters (particularly the rural ones) have been registered as Democrats for years, but voting Republican since Reagan. Looking at the 2000 statistics, also available on Dopp's site, there are similar anomalies, although the trends are not as strong as in 2004. But some suggest the 2000 election may have been questionable in Florida, too.
One of the people involved in Dopp's analysis noted that it may be possible to determine the validity of the "rural Democrat" theory by comparing Florida's white rural counties to those of Pennsylvania, another swing state but one that went for Kerry, as the exit polls there predicted. Interestingly, the Pennsylvania analysis, available at http://ustogether.org/election04/PA_vote_patt.htm, doesn't show the same kind of swings as does Florida, lending credence to the possibility of problems in Florida.
Even more significantly, Dopp had first run the analysis while filtering out smaller (rural) counties, and still found that the only variable that accounted for a swing toward Republican voting was the use of optical-scan machines, whereas counties with touch-screen machines generally didn't swing - regardless of size.
Others offer similar insights, based on other data. A professor at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, noted that in Florida the vote to raise the minimum wage was approved by 72%, although Kerry got 48%. "The correlation between voting for the minimum wage increase and voting for Kerry isn't likely to be perfect," he noted, "but one would normally expect that the gap - of 1.5 million votes - to be far smaller than it was."
While all of this may or may not be evidence of vote tampering, it again brings the nation back to the question of why several states using electronic voting machines or scanners programmed by private, for-profit corporations and often connected to modems produced votes inconsistent with exit poll numbers.
Those exit poll results have been a problem for reporters ever since Election Day.
Election night, I'd been doing live election coverage for WDEV, one of the radio stations that carries my syndicated show, and, just after midnight, during the 12:20 a.m. Associated Press Radio News feed, I was startled to hear the reporter detail how Karen Hughes had earlier sat George W. Bush down to inform him that he'd lost the election. The exit polls were clear: Kerry was winning in a landslide. "Bush took the news stoically," noted the AP report.
But then the computers reported something different. In several pivotal states.
Conservatives see a conspiracy here: They think the exit polls were rigged.
Dick Morris, the infamous political consultant to the first Clinton campaign who became a Republican consultant and Fox News regular, wrote an article for The Hill, the publication read by every political junkie in Washington, DC, in which he made a couple of brilliant points.
"Exit Polls are almost never wrong," Morris wrote. "They eliminate the two major potential fallacies in survey research by correctly separating actual voters from those who pretend they will cast ballots but never do and by substituting actual observation for guesswork in judging the relative turnout of different parts of the state."
He added: "So, according to ABC-TVs exit polls, for example, Kerry was slated to carry Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa, all of which Bush carried. The only swing state the network had going to Bush was West Virginia, which the president won by 10 points."
Yet a few hours after the exit polls were showing a clear Kerry sweep, as the computerized vote numbers began to come in from the various states the election was called for Bush.
How could this happen?
On the CNBC TV show "Topic A With Tina Brown," several months ago, Howard Dean had filled in for Tina Brown as guest host. His guest was Bev Harris, the Seattle grandmother who started www.blackboxvoting.org from her living room. Bev pointed out that regardless of how votes were tabulated (other than hand counts, only done in odd places like small towns in Vermont), the real "counting" is done by computers. Be they Diebold Opti-Scan machines, which read paper ballots filled in by pencil or ink in the voter's hand, or the scanners that read punch cards, or the machines that simply record a touch of the screen, in all cases the final tally is sent to a "central tabulator" machine.
That central tabulator computer is a Windows-based PC.
"In a voting system," Harris explained to Dean on national television, "you have all the different voting machines at all the different polling places, sometimes, as in a county like mine, there's a thousand polling places in a single county. All those machines feed into the one machine so it can add up all the votes. So, of course, if you were going to do something you shouldn't to a voting machine, would it be more convenient to do it to each of the 4000 machines, or just come in here and deal with all of them at once?"
Dean nodded in rhetorical agreement, and Harris continued. "What surprises people is that the central tabulator is just a PC, like what you and I use. It's just a regular computer."
"So," Dean said, "anybody who can hack into a PC can hack into a central tabulator?"
Harris nodded affirmation, and pointed out how Diebold uses a program called GEMS, which fills the screen of the PC and effectively turns it into the central tabulator system. "This is the official program that the County Supervisor sees," she said, pointing to a PC that was sitting between them loaded with Diebold's software.
Bev then had Dean open the GEMS program to see the results of a test election. They went to the screen titled "Election Summary Report" and waited a moment while the PC "adds up all the votes from all the various precincts," and then saw that in this faux election Howard Dean had 1000 votes, Lex Luthor had 500, and Tiger Woods had none. Dean was winning.
"Of course, you can't tamper with this software," Harris noted. Diebold wrote a pretty good program.
But, it's running on a Windows PC.
So Harris had Dean close the Diebold GEMS software, go back to the normal Windows PC desktop, click on the "My Computer" icon, choose "Local Disk C:," open the folder titled GEMS, and open the sub-folder "LocalDB" which, Harris noted, "stands for local database, that's where they keep the votes." Harris then had Dean double-click on a file in that folder titled "Central Tabulator Votes," which caused the PC to open the vote count in a database program like Excel.
In the "Sum of the Candidates" row of numbers, she found that in one precinct Dean had received 800 votes and Lex Luthor had gotten 400.
"Let's just flip those," Harris said, as Dean cut and pasted the numbers from one cell into the other. "And," she added magnanimously, "let's give 100 votes to Tiger."
They closed the database, went back into the official GEMS software "the legitimate way, you're the county supervisor and you're checking on the progress of your election."
As the screen displayed the official voter tabulation, Harris said, "And you can see now that Howard Dean has only 500 votes, Lex Luthor has 900, and Tiger Woods has 100." Dean, the winner, was now the loser.
Harris sat up a bit straighter, smiled, and said, "We just edited an election, and it took us 90 seconds."
On live national television. (You can see the clip on www.votergate.tv.) And they had left no tracks whatsoever, Harris said, noting that it would be nearly impossible for the election software – or a County election official - to know that the vote database had been altered.
Which brings us back to Morris and those pesky exit polls that had Karen Hughes telling George W. Bush that he'd lost the election in a landslide.
Morris's conspiracy theory is that the exit polls "were sabotage" to cause people in the western states to not bother voting for Bush, since the networks would call the election based on the exit polls for Kerry. But the networks didn't do that, and had never intended to.
According to congressional candidate Fisher, it makes far more sense that the exit polls were right - they weren't done on Diebold PCs - and that the vote itself was hacked.
And not only for the presidential candidate - Jeff Fisher thinks this hit him and pretty much every other Democratic candidate for national office in the most-hacked swing states.
So far, the only national "mainstream" media to come close to this story was Keith Olbermann on his show Friday night, November 5th, when he noted that it was curious that all the voting machine irregularities so far uncovered seem to favor Bush. In the meantime, the Washington Post and other media are now going through single-bullet-theory-like contortions to explain how the exit polls had failed.
But I agree with Fox's Dick Morris on this one, at least in large part. Wrapping up his story for The Hill, Morris wrote in his final paragraph, "This was no mere mistake. Exit polls cannot be as wrong across the board as they were on election night. I suspect foul play."
Thom Hartmann (thom at thomhartmann.com) is a Project Censored Award-winning best-selling author and host of a nationally syndicated daily progressive talk show. www.thomhartmann .com His most recent books are "The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight," "Unequal Protection: The Rise of Corporate Dominance and the Theft of Human Rights," "We The People: A Call To Take Back America," and "What Would Jefferson Do?: A Return To Democracy."
Also See:
Florida Secretary of State Presidential Results by County 11/02/2004 (.pdf) (http://election.dos.state.fl.us/pdf/canvassing1.pdf) Florida Secretary of State County Registration by Party 2/9/2004 (.pdf) (http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voterreg/pdf/2004/2004pppParty.pdf)
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> http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=04/11/03/1520249
We speak with investigative reporter Greg Palast and Barbara Arnwine of the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law about voting problems in Florida, Ohio and New Mexico. [includes rush transcript] President Bush won Florida along with its 27 electoral votes four years after the Supreme Court stopped the recount and put him in the White House.
With 99% of precincts reporting, Bush won 52 percent of the votes and John Kerry 47 percent. Independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader won less than 1 percent.
Hundreds of thousands of people across the state took advantage of early voting, which started 15 days ago. By the time the polls opened on Nov. 2nd, more than 2 million voters had cast ballots. But in heavily Democratic Broward County, thousands of voters never received their absentee ballots in time.
Broward elections Supervisor Brenda Snipes came under fire over the weekend for losing track of as many as 58,000 ballots that were allegedly given to the Postal Service earlier in the month.
County officials moved to get the ballots sent out in time for voters to return them by November 2nd as required by state election rules. According to the U.S. Postal Service, after mail carriers had left on Saturday, both Broward County and Palm Beach County dropped off more than 8,000 absentee ballots for mailing. Many of the ballots arrived unsealed, forcing postal employees to take the time to seal envelopes. In a video press release from the US Postal Service, spokesperson Gerald McKiernan described the situation.
* Gerald McKiernan, U.S. Postal Service Spokesman speaking in Broward County, FL on October 30.
US Postal Service, spokesperson Gerald McKiernan. The American Civil Liberties Union has now filed a lawsuit against Secretary of State Glenda Hood and elections supervisors in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, asking that completed absentee ballots mailed in the U.S. be subject to the same Nov. 12 deadline as overseas votes. State law required those ballots to reach county offices by Tuesday night. As the ACLU was preparing to file the suit, Glenda Hood addressed the issue to reporters.
* Glenda Hood, Florida Secretary of State speaking on November 2.
# Barbara Arnwine, Executive Director of the Lawyers" Committee for Civil Rights Under Law. # Greg Palast, investigative reporter with the BBC and author of the books "The Best Democracy Money Can Buy" and "Democracy and Regulation." RUSH TRANSCRIPT
This transcript is available free of charge, however donations help us provide closed captioning for the deaf and hard of hearing on our TV broadcast. Thank you for your generous contribution. Donate - $25, $50, $100, more...
AMY GOODMAN: In a video press release from the U.S. Postal Service, spokesperson Gerald McKiernan described the situation.
GERALD MCKIERNAN: Well, incredibly here on Saturday afternoon at 2:00, we received 2,467 more ballots to be sent out, even though Dr. Snipes said she finished her work yesterday, and that was Friday. Sadly, some of the ballots are going to Atlanta, Georgia. This one's going to Little Rock, Arkansas. I'm not sure we can do this. We'll deliver the local ones. We'll do the best we can. We'll get out as many as we can and hopefully get them returned.
AMY GOODMAN: U.S. Postal Service spokesperson Gerald McKeirnan. The American Civil Liberties Union (A.C.L.U.) has now filed a lawsuit against the Secretary of State, Glenda Hood and elections supervisors in Miami, Dade, and Broward counties asking that completed absentee ballots mailed in the U.S. be subject to the same November 12th deadline as overseas votes. State law required those ballots to reach county offices by Tuesday night. As the A.C.L.U. is preparing to file the suit, Glenda Hood addressed the issue to reporters.
REPORTER: The A.C.L.U. has already said they are going to sue over the issue of absentee ballots in South Florida, and accepting them, having them count past today if they're postmarked today. I mean, are you all prepared to defend that, and to defend the state law on that, and not have the ballots count?
GLENDA HOOD: We will always follow State Law, and State Law requires that absentee ballots be turned in at a certain time. With the exception of overseas ballots, and those must be in the Supervisor's of Elections hands by November 12th.
AMY GOODMAN: Glenda Hood, Florida's Secretary of State. We're joined now to address this issue as well as issues around the country of voting and problems voters faced, by Greg Palast, investigative reporter with the B.B.C., author of the book The Best Democracy Money Can Buy. Also, Barbara Arnwine joins us again, executive director of the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law. We welcome you both to Democracy Now! Greg Palast, your response?
GREG PALAST: Wow. I hate to say it again, they're going to say that I'm a spoilsport. Who shoplifted? In New Mexico and Ohio, when I was last on your program, we called the fence and we hit it over. We said that if this thing is going to be taken, it'll be Florida, it'll be New Mexico, it'll be Colorado, Ohio. Florida is, I think, suspect, but Bush may have it. Colorado is definitely a Bush turf. New Mexico, this is the big game. This is where. The reason why Bush may get those electoral votes, and the White House again, and Ohio is not the count, but the non-count. We have something in America called spoilage. I'm looking at these CNN numbers and they all add up very neatly to 100%. Doesn't happen. Especially the two worst states in America, in terms of votes simply not counted for technical reason, are Ohio and New Mexico. And guess whose votes don't get counted? In Ohio, it's black votes. In New Mexico, it's brown and Native American votes. I'm looking at suspect numbers out of Dona Ana, Las Cruces. The vote numbers just came in, and you have a tremendous non-count of Hispanic votes, 3-4 % of the entire vote there just doesn't get counted. McKinley, you have a problem that about 8-9% of the votes in the machines, that’s a Native American area outside the Navajo reservation. Rio Arriba, again Hispanic votes under counted. You get weird numbers, like two to one for Bush in Chavez County, heavily Hispanic. It's an area called Little Texas that republicans control. It's a suspect vote. If you take the votes out of the garbage can in New Mexico, I have no doubt that it was Kerry by a slim majority.
AMY GOODMAN: Barbara Arnwine.
BARBARA ARNWINE: Yes, I think what we're seeing is fascinating. I've been watching a number of these elections, and obviously, it's very interesting. The quotes that you played from Glenda Hood, the Secretary of State of Florida was very telling because she says that she will always follow state law yet they didn't send the ballots on time as required by state law. I mean, it's a very interesting double standard that we're still seeing out there, governments that are failing to comply with their own procedures and then holding voters accountable for their errors that have been made by the government. It's a fascinating situation. What I find interesting, I have been watching the coverage, and one thing is obvious, that most of the news anchors do not understand our current electoral system. The fact that people are saying they had 100% of the count in when they hadn't even counted provisional ballots. We have not yet counted absentee ballots in certain states or overseas ballots, military ballots. It's really bizarre. I mean, I think this rush to judgment that the press has wanting to, you know, post figures and declare victors so prematurely is part of the problem. I was fascinated to watch Tom Brokaw and others this morning, the station where they were saying that they didn't understand what a provisional ballot was, some of the anchors were saying. It was very obvious that they didn't. And it's just, I think that we need, you know, massive education, but at least those covering it need to be much more informed and stop talking about 100% of the count being in when it's not. If you have not counted 176 or whatever the count is, 276,000 ballots in Ohio, how in the world can say that you have 100% of the count in? You don't. All you know is that you are trying to get your count correct. I think this whole thing has been fascinating. I also think the other unexplored story from this election has been New Orleans. No one is talking about what went wrong in New Orleans, how many polls were down for so long. You know, during the day and how that affected what everyone's been talking about instead, which is the, they say the overwhelming unexpected victory for the senatorial Republican, Republican senatorial candidate there. I think that has something to do with the fact that New Orleans had, most of their polls down for a good part of the day. So, I think that there's, you know, a lot that's unexplored. I'm kind of sad to see the whitewash that has been given to this election by the media in general saying that it was, you know, it had a few flaws, long lines, basically a good election. That's just not true.
AMY GOODMAN: Can you explain provisional ballots, and what they are when, for example, right now the issue comes down to Ohio's, what both the Secretary of State there, Ohio's Ken Blackwell, as well as the democrats are saying is some 250,000 provisional ballots?
BARBARA ARNWINE: Yes. A provisional ballot is required by the help America Vote Act. It is a particular special kind of ballot that is used for any voter for whom an election official cannot determine immediately whether or not that person is actually eligible or entitled to vote, and that includes people who show up without what may be called proper identification. It includes people who, quote, may be in the wrong precinct. It includes, you know, people who show in their, they registered to vote, but the registration officials have a backlog of registrations and have never entered their name into the system. It includes all kinds of voters of that nature. So, you have no idea within the provisional ballot universe, you know, who is really entitled to vote and who actually, whose vote will ultimately be counted. So, I think it's a fascinating, you know, procedure, but the reason why provisional ballots exist is because in 2000, there was such a misadventure by Florida, and failure to administer their elections in a fair and honest way, that we, you know, the Help America Vote Act was passed to make sure that all voters would at least, if they showed that the polls have a right to cast a ballot and not be turned home. What, however, what has happened in Ohio in particular, the lawyers committee and the election protection coalition. We have taken hundreds of calls from voters who are complaining because in Ohio, they were turned away. They were not even allowed to cast a provisional ballot. They were not, you know, allowed this right, which they're entitled to under federal law. So, we have a lot of problems all over the state of Ohio with complaints from people upset about the fact that they weren't even given a provisional ballot, not to talk about the fact that they haven't been counted.
AMY GOODMAN: Greg Palast, your expose last week about a so called caging list in Florida that was sent to instead of the georgewbush.com website, well, you got your hands on it.
GREG PALAST: Right, we got our hands on it. And what that was this turned out to be what was obviously a list of voters that they wanted to challenge in Florida, the Republicans. This was, they went to the head of the Bush campaign in Florida yesterday during, while the polls were open, I got 12 more of these lists. We're talking 25,000- 30,000 people, almost all African American voters they intended to challenge, but after we broke the story on BBC, the democrats went to court, pushed against the Republicans, sent out letters to supervisors warning about this stuff, and they backed down in Florida. However, they didn't back down in Ohio, where unlike the secret lists of Florida, they were up front causing massive problems as Barbara was speaking about in particular, just holding up the lines, making challenges against basically African American voters. You know this is against the law. We had in 1965 Voting Rights Act, the whole point of that was to stop states from using so-called legal means of impeding the black vote, profiling black voters and saying that "you cannot vote." Give them a provisional ballot, which for the most part is thrown out. I'm looking in Ohio, just as I said in New Mexico. In Ohio, you've got a tremendous problem again with non-count of the vote. Barbara is right. When they talk about 100% of the vote counted. Not so. They never count 100% of the vote in Ohio it is one of the worst states in terms of non-counts of the vote, and most of the non-count occurs in African American areas. That's your margin. I'm sorry, if you count all of the votes that should be counted it's not that close of a race. It's a blue state.
BARBARA ARNWINE: Yes. I mean, it's fascinating. You know, obviously, from a non-partisan vantage point, I mean, I find it just absolutely fascinating that we still are talking about yet another election in which we cannot say with any certainty that the African American voting population was treated fairly. In fact, we could say very clearly that there were several, several horrible incidents that remind us that our system is not racially neutral. For example, everything from not only the challenges, which were very racial in their orientation, but also, you know, the fact that in many of the precincts where African Americans were voting, that's where people were the most adamant about, I would say, using dual standards. For example, we got a lot of complaints from voters who were made in African American precincts to show double identification, but then when a white voter would come in, they would not make them show the same identification. They were much less stringent. These kinds of problems. We also had the dirty tricks that we have no idea how many people they discouraged or kept from the polls by, as we reported last night, the recording that was going on in Philadelphia, the automated recording that was going to African American homes with an actor, apparently very good actor, who was imitating Bill Clinton's voice telling African American voters don't worry about the long lines, you can always come back and vote on November 3.
AMY GOODMAN: Greg Palast, ten seconds.
GREG PALAST: They're also not letting people register. Black registrations were thrown out in the Cleveland area by the tens of thousands. Tens of thousands. I'm telling you it was not close.
AMY GOODMAN:How do you know that?
GREG PALAST: This was an analysis by Democracy Now! Excuse me, by Democracy South of the registration forms, which are just tossed in the garbage, in fact.
AMY GOODMAN: Barbara Arnwine and Greg Palast, we'll leave it there as we end today's program with the outcome of the presidential election remaining very much in the air. A number of groups are beginning mobilizing some against what happened yesterday, others aimed at continuing the anti-war movement. Early this morning as we broadcasting, the war resistors' league held a procession that began at ground zero where the towers of the World Trade Center once stood and headed to Wall Street.
VICKY REVERE: I live on the Lower East Side of Manhattan, two miles from Ground Zero. I'm out here because I'm a pacifist. I believe that war is a crime against humanity. I think this war is worse than a lot of others in that it was totally unnecessary, and I'm just devastated that it's going to continue on a day --
AMY GOODMAN: And thanks to Daniel Cashin for recording this protest this morning here in New York.
To purchase an audio or video copy of this entire program, click here for our new online ordering or call 1 (800) 881-2359.
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> http://globalresearch.ca/articles/KEE411A.html
Footprints of Electoral Fraud: The November 2 Exit Poll Scam
by Michael Keefer
www.globalresearch.ca 5 November 2004
Republican electoral fraud in the 2004 presidential election was widely anticipated by informed observers--whose warnings about the opportunities for fraud offered by "black box" voting machines supplied and serviced by corporations closely aligned with Republican interests (and used to tally nearly a third of the votes cast on November 2) have been amply borne out by the results.1
One of the clear indicators of massive electoral fraud was the wide divergence, both nationally and in swing states, between exit poll results and the reported vote tallies. The major villains, it would seem, were the suppliers of touch-screen voting machines. There appears to be evidence, however, that the corporations responsible for assembling vote-counting and exit poll information may also have been complicit in the fraud.
Until recently, the major American corporate infomedia networks (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, and AP) relied on a consortium known as the Voter News Service for vote-counting and exit poll information. But following the scandals and consequent embarrassments of the 2000 and 2002 elections, this consortium was disbanded. It was replaced in 2004 by a partnership of Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International known as the National Election Pool.
The National Election Pool’s own data—as transmitted by CNN on the evening of November 2 and the early morning of November 3—suggest very strongly that the results of the exit polls were themselves fiddled late on November 2 in order to make their numbers conform with the tabulated vote tallies.
It is important to remember how large the discrepancy was between the early vote tallies and the early exit poll figures. By the time polls were closing in the eastern states, the vote-count figures published by CNN showed Bush leading Kerry by a massive 11 percent margin. At 8:50 p.m. EST, Bush was credited with 6,590,476 votes, and Kerry with 5,239,414. This margin gradually shrank. By 9:00 p.m., Bush purportedly had 8,284,599 votes, and Kerry 6,703,874; by 9:06 p.m., Bush had 9,257,135, and Kerry had 7,652,510, giving the incumbent a 9 percent lead, with 54 percent of the vote to Kerry’s 45 percent.
At the same time, embarrassingly enough, the national exit poll figures reported by CNN showed Kerry as holding a narrow but potentially decisive lead over Bush. At 9:06 p.m. EST, the exit polls indicated that women’s votes (54 percent of the total) were going 54 percent to Kerry, 45 percent to Bush, and 1 percent to Nader; men’s votes (46 percent of the total) were breaking 51 percent to Bush, 47 percent to Kerry, and 1 percent to Nader. Kerry, in other words, was leading Bush by nearly 3 percent.
The early exit polls appear to have caused some concern to the good people at the National Election Pool: a gap of 12 or 14 percent between tallied results and exit polls can hardly inspire confidence in the legitimacy of an election.
One can surmise that instructions of two sorts were issued. The election-massagers working for Diebold, ES&S (Election Systems & Software) and the other suppliers of black-box voting machines may have been told to go easy on their manipulations of back-door ‘Democrat-Delete’ software: mere victory was what the Bush campaign wanted, not an implausible landslide. And the number crunchers at the National Election Pool may have been asked to fix up those awkward exit polls.
Fix them they did. When the national exit polls were last updated, at 1:36 a.m. EST on November 3, men’s votes (still 46 percent of the total) had gone 54 percent to Bush, 45 percent to Kerry, and 1 percent to Nader; women’s votes (54 percent of the total) had gone 47 percent to Bush, 52 percent to Kerry, and 1 percent to Nader.
But how do we know the fix was in? Because the exit poll data also included the total number of respondents. At 9:00 p.m. EST, this number was well over 13,000; by 1:36 a.m. EST on November 3 it had risen by less than 3 percent, to a final total of 13, 531 respondents—but with a corresponding swing of 5 percent from Kerry to Bush in voters’ reports of their choices. Given the increase in respondents, a swing of this size is a mathematical impossibility.
The same pattern is evident in the exit polls of two key swing states, Ohio and Florida.
At 7:32 p.m. EST, CNN was reporting the following exit poll data for Ohio. Women voters (53 percent of the total) favoured Kerry over Bush by 53 percent to 47 percent; male voters (47 percent of the total) preferred Kerry over Bush by 51 percent to 49 percent. Kerry was thus leading Bush by a little more than 4 percent. But by 1:41 a.m. EST on November 3, when the exit poll was last updated, a dramatic shift had occurred: women voters had split 50-50 in their preferences for Kerry and Bush, while men had swung to supporting Bush over Kerry by 52 percent to 47 percent. The final exit polls showed Bush leading in Ohio by 2.5 percent.
At 7:32 p.m., there were 1,963 respondents; at 1:41 a.m. on November 3, there was a final total of 2,020 respondents. These fifty-seven additional respondents must all have voted very powerfully for Bush—for while representing only a 2.8 percent increase in the number of respondents, they managed to produce a swing from Kerry to Bush of fully 6.5 percent.
In Florida, the exit polls appear to have been tampered with in a similar manner. At 8:40 p.m. EST, CNN was reporting exit polls that showed Kerry and Bush in a near dead heat. Women voters (54 percent of the total) preferred Kerry over Bush by 52 percent to 48 percent, while men (46 percent of the total) preferred Bush over Kerry by 52 percent to 47 percent, with 1 percent of their votes going to Nader. But the final update of the exit poll, made at 1:01 a.m. EST on November 3, showed a different pattern: women voters now narrowly preferred Bush over Kerry, by 50 percent to 49 percent, while the men preferred Bush by 53 percent to 46 percent, with 1 percent of the vote still going to Nader. These figures gave Bush a 4 percent lead over Kerry.
The number of exit poll respondents in Florida had risen only from 2,846 to 2,862. But once again, a powerful numerical magic was at work. A mere sixteen respondents—0.55 percent of the total number—produced a four percent swing to Bush.
What we are witnessing, the evidence would suggest, is a late-night contribution by the National Elections Pool to the rewriting of history.
It is possible that at some future moment questions about electoral fraud in the 2004 presidential election might become insistent enough to be embarrassing. The pundits, at that point, will be able to point to the NEP’s final exit poll figures in the decisive swing states of Florida and Ohio—and to marvel at how closely they reflect the NEP’s vote tallies.
The Ohio Fifty-Seven (is there a Heinz-Kerry joke embedded in the number?) and the Florida Sixteen will have done their bit in ensuring the democratic legitimacy of the one-party imperial state.
Michael Keefer, an Associate Professor of English at the University of Guelph, is a former president of the Association of Canadian College and University Teachers of English. His writings include Lunar Perspectives: Field Notes from the Culture Wars (Anansi) and the edited collection War Against Iraq: Critical Resources (http://www.uoguelph.ca/~mkeefer ).
Note
1. Among the warnings, see Bev Harris, Black Box Voting: Ballot Tampering in the 21st Century (Talion Publishing/Black Box Voting; free internet version available at www.BlackBoxVoting.org); Infernal Press, "How George W. Bush Won the 2004 Presidential Election" (Infernal Press, 25 June 2003); Steve Moore, "E-Democracy: Stealing the Election in 2004" (Global Outlook, No. 8, Summer 2004); and Greg Palast, "An Election Spolied Rotten" (www.TomPaine.com, 1 November 2004). Early assessments of the election include Greg Palast, "Kerry Won… Here are the Facts" (www.TomPaine.com, 4 November 2004); and Wayne Madsen, "Grand Theft Election" (www.globalresearch.ca, 5 November 2004).
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> http://www.spectrumz.com/z/fair_use/2004/11_04.html
November 4, 2004
Ohio Whitewash
Basic report from Columbus
>From a lawyer who was in there in Ohio. A database of voter irregularities is reportedly being assembled, and hopefully there will be web sites devoted to documenting what really happened.
I worked for 3 days, including Election Day, on the statewide voter protection hotline run by the Ohio Democratic Party in Columbus, Ohio. I am writing this because the media is inexplicably whitewashing what happened in Ohio, and Kerry's concession was likewise inexplicable. Hundreds of thousands of people were disenfranchised in Ohio.
People waited on line for as long as 10 hours. It appears to have only happened in Democratic-leaning precincts, principally (a) precincts where many African Americans lived, and (b) precincts near colleges. I spoke to a young man who got on line at 11:30 am and voted at 7 pm. When he left at 7 pm, the line was about 150 voters longer than when he'd arrived, which meant those people were going to wait even longer. In fact they waited for as much as 10 hours, and their voting was concluded at about 3 am. The reason this occurred was that they had 1 voting station per 1000 voters, while the adjacent precinct had 1 voting station per 184. Both precincts were within the same county, and managed by the same county board of elections. The difference between them is that the privileged polling place was in a rural, solidly Republican, area, while the one with long lines was in the college town of Gambier, OH.
Lines of 4 and 5 hours were the order of the day in many African-American neighborhoods.
Touch screen voting machines in Youngstown OH were registering "George W. Bush" when people pressed "John F. Kerry" ALL DAY LONG. This was reported immediately after the polls opened, and reported over and over again throughout the day, and yet the bogus machines were inexplicably kept in use THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
Countless other frauds occurred, such as postcards advising people of incorrect polling places, registered Democrats not receiving absentee ballots, duly registered young voters being forced to file provisional ballots even though their names and signatures appeared in the voting rolls, longtime active voting registered voters being told they weren't registered, bad faith challenges by Republican "challengers" in Democratic precincts, and on and on and on.
I was very proud of the way so many Ohioans fought so valiantly for their right to vote, and would not be turned away. Many, however, could not spend the entire day and were afraid of losing their jobs, due to the severe economic depression hitting Ohio.
I do not understand why Kerry conceded and did not fight to ensure that all Ohioans would have a chance to vote, and for their vote to be counted.
Ray
Ray Beckerman Beldock Levine & Hoffman LLP 99 Park Ave (Ste 1600) New York, NY 10016
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> http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2004/11/05/loc_warrenvote05.html
Friday, November 5, 2004
Warren's vote tally walled off Alone in Ohio, officials cited homeland security
By Erica Solvig Enquirer staff writer
LEBANON - Citing concerns about potential terrorism, Warren County officials locked down the county administration building on election night and blocked anyone from observing the vote count as the nation awaited Ohio's returns.
County officials say they took the action Tuesday night for homeland security, although state elections officials said they didn't know of any other Ohio county that closed off its elections board. Media organizations protested, saying it violated the law and the public's rights. The Warren results, delayed for hours because of long lines that extended voting past the scheduled close of polls, were part of the last tallies that helped clinch President Bush's re-election.
"The media should have been permitted into the area where there was counting," Enquirer attorney Jack Greiner said. "This is a process that should be done in complete transparency and it wasn't."
Warren County Emergency Services Director Frank Young said he had recommended increased security based on information received from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Bureau of Investigation in recent weeks.
Commissioners made the security decisions in a closed-door meeting last week, but didn't publicize the restrictions that were made until after polls closed.
"If we were going to make a judgment, we wanted to err on the side of caution," Commissioner Pat South said Thursday. "... Hindsight is 20-20. There was never any intent to exclude the press.
"We were trying to protect security."
WCPO-TV (Channel 9) News Director Bob Morford said he's "never seen anything like it." When he first heard about Warren County's building restrictions, he said he understood concerns that too many people could make the counting process "a circus." But he said it's never been a problem in the past, and that the county could have set up a security checkpoint and had people show identification.
"Frankly, we consider that a red herring," Morford said of the county's "homeland security" reason. "That's something that's put up when you don't know what else to put up to keep us out."
James Lee, spokesman with the Ohio Secretary of State's Office in Columbus, said Thursday he hasn't heard of any situations similar to Warren County's building restrictions. He said general security concerns are decided at the local levels.
Other counties, such as Butler County, let people watch ballot checkers through a window.
Typically, the Warren County commissioners' room is set up as a gathering place for people to watch the votes come in. But that wasn't done this year.
And despite being told that there would be an area with telephones set up for the media, those who tried to get into the building on Justice Drive were stopped by a county employee who stood guard outside. After journalists challenged the restriction, reporters were allowed into the building's lobby - two floors below the elections office.
A representative of The Associated Press, which had stringers at every Ohio board of elections site, said no such election-night access problems were reported outside of Warren County.
County Prosecutor Rachel Hutzel said commissioners "were within their rights" to restrict building access.
Having reporters and photographers around could have interfered with the count, she said.
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